SATIN / PROOF-OF-WORK LAB

# Confirmations change the odds—not certainty.

Explore the simplified catch-up model described in the Bitcoin whitepaper. Change the assumed attacker hash share and confirmation count to see how the mathematical estimate moves.

MODELLED CATCH-UP PROBABILITY **—** **

## What the model assumes

The whitepaper model treats honest and attacking miners as competing Poisson processes and asks for the probability that an attacker catches up after *z* blocks, given a fixed fraction *q* of total hashpower. This interactive view reproduces that simplified mathematical scenario; it is not a current network-risk score.

It does not model changing hashpower, fee incentives, transaction value, miner coordination, network partitions, software bugs, custodial controls, or the full economic context of a real attack. Confirmation policy should be set by the service handling the payment and the value and risk of that payment.

[Read the full double-spending explanation →](https://satin.exchange/double-spending/)