Confirmations change the odds—not certainty.

What the model assumes

The whitepaper model treats honest and attacking miners as competing Poisson processes and asks for the probability that an attacker catches up after z blocks, given a fixed fraction q of total hashpower. This interactive view reproduces that simplified mathematical scenario; it is not a current network-risk score.

It does not model changing hashpower, fee incentives, transaction value, miner coordination, network partitions, software bugs, custodial controls, or the full economic context of a real attack. Confirmation policy should be set by the service handling the payment and the value and risk of that payment.